Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid played in just 19 games last season due to more knee issues that have plagued him throughout his NBA career, and now more than ever, his future with the 76ers is in question.
Our own Grant Afseth provided a rather grim update on Embiid earlier this week, with sources stating that there is serious concern regarding the former MVP heading into the 2025-26 campaign.
“Sources with knowledge of Embiid’s situation have privately expressed concerns to FastbreakJournal.com about whether he can fully regain, and more importantly, sustain his prior level of play,” Afseth wrote. “One source also indicated there is internal concern about the possibility of Embiid requiring another procedure on the same knee down the line, which has only heightened unease about his long-term outlook.”
It makes Philadelphia’s decision to sign Embiid to a three-year, $193 million contract extension last September that much more deflating, especially considering the Sixers were obviously well aware of the big man’s persistent injury issues throughout his NBA career.
Embiid’s deal will take him through 2029 (the last year is a $67.2 million player option), and the problem is that basketball isn’t like football. There are no outs in his contract. There is no non-guaranteed money. The seven-time All-Star will get all of it, and at this point, it seems very hard to imagine him not exercising that option in the final year of the pact.
Does Joel Embiid actually have any trade value?
That brings us to the next question: does Embiid have any trade value at this point?
When healthy, we know what the former No. 3 overall pick brings to the table. He is a dominant force with two scoring titles under his belt. He can do a little bit of everything offensively, and while he may not be the same defensive force he was years ago, he remains a strong rim protector.
But the operative phrase is “when healthy.”
Embiid has never played 70 games in any individual campaign. He missed the first two seasons of his NBA career due to various medical issues. He has undergone three surgeries on his left knee. And if we are being blunt, the wear and tear seemed to be on full display this past year when Embiid averaged 23.8 points, 8.2 rebounds and just 0.9 blocks over 30.2 minutes per game on 44.4/29.9/88.2 shooting splits.
It is patently obvious that the 31-year-old is declining, and now, a legitimate argument can be made that he is really just a part-time player with a fat contract.
In a modern NBA landscape where avoiding the second apron has frustratingly become the most important thing for all 30 teams to navigate, why would anyone really want to surrender anything of value for Embiid, who may not even be all that great anymore even when he is on the floor?
Embiid is set to earn $55.2 million next season, and that number jumps to a tick under $58 million in 2025-26 once the extension kicks in. It then rises to $62.5 million the following year, and we already mentioned the player option.
Look what just happened to the Boston Celtics, whose financial constraints forced them to break up their team one year after winning a championship. Contenders want to evade that as much as they can, which instantly makes the idea of acquiring Embiid a non-starter for most squads.
Questions have always surrounded Joel Embiid
Let’s be honest: for as great as Embiid has been during the regular season throughout his NBA career, he has never made it past the second round of the playoffs. This in spite of having teammates like Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Al Horford, James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George.
People love to blame the 76ers’ front office for the team’s playoff flameouts, but at what point do we point to Embiid? Is it so wild to believe that Embiid — for as talented as he is — simply does not make his teammates better? And what about his tendency to fade late in playoff games, especially when Philadelphia gets deep into a series?
Embiid has had plenty of fine supporting cast members. He just hasn’t gotten the job done, whereas Nikola Jokic was able to win a championship in Denver in spite of not having a single All-Star teammate. Don’t think for a second rival front offices won’t take that into consideration when evaluating a potential Embiid pursuit.
A couple of years ago, though, there is no question that Embiid could have commanded a rather sizeable trade return from some team, regardless of his checkered injury history. He averaged 33.1 points per game on a true-shooting percentage of 65.5 percent during his MVP-winning 2022-23 campaign. He was terrific.
Fast forward two years later, and Embiid is quite obviously no longer the same player. He has played in a grand total of 58 games over the last couple of seasons. His body is breaking down, and it’s only going to get worse from here on out.
The 76ers are in deep, deep trouble
The 76ers don’t just have to pay Embiid, either. They also have George locked up through 2028, and like Embiid, the last year of his contract is a player option. It’s worth $56.6 million.
George himself appeared in just 41 contests during his debut campaign in Philly, and he played arguably the worst basketball of his career. Four years older than Embiid at 35, George — who also just had knee surgery — is clearly on a sharp downturn, and it seems very difficult to envision him recapturing his former production, even from his Los Angeles Clippers days.
So what exactly are the Sixers going to do here? Embiid and George are nearly untradeable unless Philadelphia parts with some draft capital to move them, which would kind of defeat the whole purpose of a potential rebuild. At the same time, the 76ers can’t just sit for several years and wait for Embiid and George’s respective contracts to expire. Something has to be done.
But what can they really do? The new CBA has made it exceedingly difficult for teams to get themselves out of these situations. The Celtics luckily positioned themselves where they could offload a couple of their major deals (in their case, Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis) while still managing to keep their core in place. Philadelphia isn’t so fortunate.
The Sixers can possibly attempt to try for one more championship run, trading away players like Jared McCain and Justin Edwards for a pie-in-the-sky title chase. But that would honestly be silly. Let’s stop kidding ourselves: the 76ers are not winning a championship. Not with this old, battered roster.
Hindsight is 20/20, but the Sixers should have never given Embiid that extension. Not given everything we already knew about him at the time.
Philadelphia just needs to hope that some desperate team comes along (maybe the Milwaukee Bucks?) and offers a feasible trade for the seven-footer, and hopefully, someone tries for George, too. Only then can the 76ers truly get themselves on the right path. But what are the chances of that happening?
Until it does, it’s going to be a very, very painful road in Philadelphia.
